Three Possible Taiwan Futures Essay -- essays research papers

mainland Chinas past and present are inextricably linked to that of the mountains commonwealth of China. Therefore, wizard cannot begin to guide and critic on the wholey comment upon a possible chinaware future without origin assessing the prevailing political climate of her mainland cousin the Peoples Republic of China. Given the current rhetoric espo workd by both Taipei and Beijing, unmatchable may argue that three possible mainland China futures emerge as most possible to occur. These scenarios, from most to least probable, are 1) peaceful reunification with the mainland China one country, two systems 2) a referendum declaring Taiwan a monarch carry, independent of the PRC and 3) reunification achieved via a PRC initiated military action.It is not insignificant that the Republic of China, Taiwan, and the Peoples Republic of China, Communist Mainland China, shoot consistently and unequivocally asserted a sacrosanct principle regarding the state of Sino-Taiwanese relati ons that there is only one China. Furthermore, in February 1972, the United States and the Peoples Republic of China issued a joint communiqu stating, ...the United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait pr resultant there is but one China and that Taiwan is a take off of China (www.chinanews.org). Therefore, one may argue that the first and most likely scenario for a possible Taiwan future is peaceful reunification one country, two systems.The foundation for peaceful reunification one country, two systems was dictated in January 1979 when the Standing Committee of the National Peoples congress of the Peoples Republic of China called for an end to military hostilities betwixt the PRC and Taiwan. The Standing Committee asserted that in its quest for subject reunification, the PRC leave behind respect the status quo on Taiwan and the views of good deal of all walks of life there and adopt reasonable policies and measures. In family line 1981, the Chairman of the NPC Standing Committee, Ye Jianying, reiterated this policy. Jianying avowed, ...after the country is reunified, Taiwan can enjoy a high degree of autonomy as a special administrative region (www.chinanews.org). Furthermore, in January 1982, Chinas paramount leader, Deng Xiaoping, remarked that in the grammatical case of national reunification the PRC would continue with its socialist system date Taiwan could maintain capitalism.In August of 1993, the S... ...of Taiwan in the event of a PRC incursion. One may argue that the Peoples Republic of China is not yet ready to enter into a direct confrontation with the US. The second obstructor that precludes a PRC invasion of Taiwan is the absence of a littoral fleet capable of devising a sustained assault on Taiwan. With the Taiwanese army intemperately entrenched in the Pescadores and on the islands of Quemoy and Matsu, an amphibious assault on Taiwan would be akin to swallowing a poison shrimp. The third, and perhaps most important, obstacle that precludes a PRC invasion of Taiwan is stigma attached to the manipulation of nuclear weapons. It is highly unlikely that the PRC would be willing to use nuclear weapons against other Chinese.It is possible to envision three distinct Taiwan futures 1) peaceful reunification with the PRC one country, two systems 2) a referendum declaring Taiwan a sovereign state, independent of the PRC and 3) reunification achieved via a PRC initiated military action. However, until the political winds in Beijing change, it is unlikely that Taiwans current ambiguous status on the world stage will change. For the time being, Taiwans future remains cloudy and uncertain.